中国工业产值占全球三分之一，人民币被低估了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and implications of the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, highlighting the tension between the benefits of currency appreciation for consumers and the potential risks for exporters and the broader economy [1][11][24]. Group 1: Impact on Exporters - Exporters, like small manufacturers in Dongguan, face significant pressure from fluctuating exchange rates, which can drastically affect their profit margins [3][5]. - A mere 3% appreciation in the yuan can render an export order unprofitable, leading to severe financial consequences for businesses reliant on thin margins [6][10]. - The article emphasizes that many industries, including textiles and electronics, are similarly vulnerable to exchange rate changes, affecting employment and livelihoods [8][10]. Group 2: Consumer Perspective - Consumers, particularly younger individuals, often view currency appreciation positively, anticipating lower prices for imported goods and travel [10][11]. - The potential for reduced costs on imported products, such as electronics and luxury items, is a significant motivator for public support of yuan appreciation [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Economic Strategy - The article references the historical context of Japan's economic experience in the 1980s, where rapid currency appreciation led to a long-term economic downturn, serving as a cautionary tale for China [15][17]. - China's approach to managing the yuan's exchange rate involves a "managed floating exchange rate system," allowing for some flexibility while maintaining control to prevent economic instability [17][24]. - The balance between supporting exports and managing domestic consumption is crucial for maintaining economic stability, with the central bank acting as a balancing force [17][24]. Group 4: Global Implications - The article highlights that China's manufacturing sector significantly impacts global supply chains, with a substantial portion of the world's goods being produced in China [18][24]. - A sudden appreciation of the yuan could lead to increased prices for Chinese exports, affecting consumers globally and potentially leading to inflation in other countries [18][19]. - The motivations behind calls for yuan appreciation from foreign politicians are often tied to economic interests rather than genuine concern for China's economy [20][22].