POGO泡沫后遗症！马尼拉地产持续低迷创5年新低

Core Insights - The residential real estate market in Metro Manila is experiencing a downturn, reaching a five-year low despite ongoing policy interest rate cuts [1][3] - Buyers are shifting from new apartments to the secondary market due to affordability constraints, while speculators who entered during the POGO boom are accelerating asset sales [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Leechiu Property Consultants indicates that the Metro Manila residential market is undergoing a "major reshuffle," with rental prices and demand returning to normal levels after being distorted by POGO premiums [3] - Overall supply has stabilized, but affordability pressures and low rental yields continue to impact purchasing behavior, with transactions primarily focused on the secondary market and developer projects offering targeted promotions [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Statistics - Data shows that the number of new residential projects and demand in Metro Manila has dropped to the lowest levels since 2020, despite developers pushing for first-hand sales through limited-time offers and incentives [3] - As of November 2025, the inventory of condominiums in Metro Manila reached 775,400 units, with 96% of ready-for-occupancy units sold and 62% of pre-sold units sold, leaving an unsold inventory of approximately 26,400 ready units and 53,900 pre-sold units, equating to about 3.5 years of supply [3] Group 3: Affordability Challenges - The situation highlights the widening affordability gap faced by the broader middle-income group, as demand in the first-hand market remains sluggish and self-occupiers increasingly turn to the more flexible and cost-effective secondary market [4] - The rental market is characterized by moderate rental yields, with current rents reverting to realistic market levels, correcting unsustainable expectations previously inflated by POGO premiums [4] - The national housing deficit is projected to reach 10.65 million units by 2024, with a long-term shortage of low-income housing supply, leading to a cautious approach from developers regarding entry into the low-income housing market due to low profit margins and high compliance costs [4]