白银价格首破60美元创历史新高

Core Drivers - Silver prices surpassed $60 per ounce for the first time in December 2025, with an annual increase of over 110%, driven by a surge in industrial demand, inventory squeeze, and a shift in financial policy [1] - Market expectations indicate an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding silver and attracts investment into precious metals as a safe haven [3] - The global photovoltaic installation capacity is expected to exceed 655 GW in 2025, with silver consumption in this sector accounting for 55% of total silver demand, doubling from 2022 levels [4] - The demand for silver in electric vehicles is significantly higher, with each vehicle using 25-50 grams of silver, and AI server chips consuming 30% more silver than traditional devices [5] - A global silver supply shortage has persisted for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 2,700 tons in 2025 due to production cuts from major silver-producing countries and slow growth in recycled silver [5] Inventory Squeeze and Capital Dynamics - Global silver inventories are critically low, with London deliverable stocks at a ten-year low of 233 tons and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks nearing a critical threshold of 519 tons, leading to urgent silver transport [6] - A "vortex squeeze" effect is observed as inventory shortages rotate between New York, London, and Shanghai, causing Shanghai silver premiums to rise by 3%-4% [6] - The silver market is relatively small, with a market size only one-tenth that of gold, allowing speculative trading to significantly amplify price volatility [6] Market Dynamics and Policy Catalysts - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100:1 to 70:1, indicating a 45% potential for correction, with strong demand for silver as a catch-up asset [7] - The U.S. has classified silver as a "critical mineral," intensifying stockpiling behavior among traders and exacerbating supply constraints [7] Industry Impact - Mining companies like Shengda Resources have seen stock prices increase by 150%, benefiting from higher margins due to rising silver prices [13] - Silver price increases have pressured photovoltaic companies, which see silver costs constituting 15% of component costs, leading some to pause procurement and explore copper paste alternatives [13] - Silver bar manufacturers are experiencing a doubling in sales, while jewelry processing factories have reduced semi-finished product orders by 50% [13] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to prioritize bank investment in silver bars (with premiums ≤5%) or silver ETFs (e.g., AGQ), while avoiding silver jewelry with high labor costs and leveraged trading [12]