Investment Highlights - The company, Zhongshui Energy (02570), is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 84.63, based on a P/S valuation method corresponding to a valuation multiple of 7x for 2026 [1] - The fuel cell industry is experiencing rapid cost reduction, with significant long-term potential. It is expected that by 2028, the total lifecycle cost of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks will gradually reach parity. According to Sullivan's forecast, global fuel cell vehicle sales may reach 426,000 units by 2028, with a CAGR of 97.5% from 2023 to 2028 [1] Company Advantages - Zhongshui Energy is a leading player in China's fuel cell sector, with several competitive advantages: 1) The company holds a leading market share (18% in 2024) and invests significantly in R&D, leading the industry in technology [1] 2) The company self-develops key components such as stacks, membrane electrodes, and bipolar plates, continuously promoting the localization of core components [1] 3) The company has a strong presence in the heavy-duty truck segment, achieving a 42% market share in 2023, while also expanding into low-cost hydrogen and other market applications [1] 4) The company provides end-to-end hydrogen energy solutions based on its product layout, including electrolyzers and fuel cells [1] Product Development and Market Expansion - In 2023, the company launched PEM electrolyzers and membrane electrode series products, demonstrating strong technological synergy. In 2024, the company will introduce off-grid supercharging pile products applicable in high-speed and tourist areas, alleviating power expansion pressure [2] - The sales revenue of non-automotive fuel cell systems is expected to exceed CNY 54 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 133%. The company is also accelerating its overseas business expansion, with overseas fuel cell system revenue expected to account for 9% in 2024, indicating potential for accelerated growth [2] Market Potential and Financial Projections - The company is positioned to capture significant growth potential in the fuel cell market, particularly in heavy-duty trucks and off-grid supercharging applications. The company anticipates EPS of -6.0 CNY and -4.7 CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with revenue projections of CNY 670 million and CNY 980 million for the same years. The company is assigned a 7x P/S for 2026, corresponding to HKD 84.63, indicating a 17.5% upside from the current stock price, which corresponds to 5.9x 2026 P/S [2]
重塑能源(02570.HK)：燃料电池领军企业 持续拓展应用场景