2025年第4季投資總監洞察

Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS Group indicates a slowdown in global economic growth but suggests that a recession can be avoided. Investment strategies should align with policy and market trends while diversifying to hedge risks, with a focus on technology, Asian markets excluding Japan, investment-grade bonds, and gold [1]. Macroeconomic Core Judgments - Global economic growth is slowing due to uncertainties in tariff policies, but the U.S. can avoid recession thanks to AI-related capital expenditures, fiscal stimulus, and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, inflation risks remain [1][19]. - The market is being driven by policy, with the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle and significant impacts from fiscal stimulus and tariff policies. The high U.S. debt level necessitates a low-interest-rate environment for financing [1]. Asset Allocation Views 1. Stock Market: Focus on Technology and Asian Markets - U.S. stock market: The technology sector is rated positively, driven by accelerated AI applications, while the overall U.S. stock market is rated neutral. The energy sector outlook is downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases suppressing oil prices [3][4]. - European stock market: Rated neutral, with improved economic growth prospects and attractive valuations, but tariffs and a stronger euro may pressure profit margins [5]. - Japanese stock market: Rated negatively due to high valuations and political uncertainties affecting policy execution, despite foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian markets excluding Japan: Rated positively, with valuations approximately 30% lower than global averages, supported by Chinese policy stimulus, strong Indian economic growth, and resilient earnings [7]. 2. Bond Market: Preference for Short-Duration Investment-Grade Bonds - Investment-grade (IG) bonds: Rated positively, with attractive valuations in a rate-cutting cycle, focusing on 2-3 year short-duration, high-rated A/BBB bonds. Consider extending duration to 7-10 years if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields exceed 4.5% [7][8]. - High-yield (HY) bonds: Rated negatively due to historically low spreads and insufficient risk compensation, with rising default risks [8]. - Long-term bonds: Rated cautiously, as the steepening yield curve presents unfavorable risk-reward ratios [8]. 3. Foreign Exchange Market: Mild Weakening of the U.S. Dollar - U.S. dollar: Rated negatively, with a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and fiscal concerns leading to a gradual depreciation, though the decline is not expected to be sharp due to high real yields and resilient U.S. equities [9]. - Favorable currencies: Euro (due to divergence in ECB and Fed policies) and Australian dollar (supported by improved U.S.-China trade relations) [10]. - Asian currencies: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, while the Singapore dollar may weaken due to expectations of policy easing [11]. 4. Commodities and Alternative Investments: Focus on Hedging and Scarcity - Commodities: Overall demand is weak, with a focus on strategic commodities such as precious metals (due to safe-haven demand), rare earths (for technology/defense needs), and coffee (limited supply and tariff impacts). Oil price forecasts are downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases leading to oversupply [12]. - Gold: Rated strongly positively, supported by a weaker dollar, rate-cut expectations, ongoing central bank purchases, and de-dollarization trends, with a target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [12]. - Alternative investments: Private equity, debt, and hedge funds are rated positively for providing non-market directional returns, diversifying risks, and enhancing portfolio resilience [13]. Core Investment Strategies - Leverage-based portfolio: Simultaneously allocate to income-generating assets (like investment-grade bonds and high-dividend stocks) and long-term growth assets (like technology and Asian equities) to balance returns and risks [14]. - Diversification hedging: Use gold, hedge funds, and private assets to hedge against downside risks and avoid impacts from single market volatility [14]. - Trend-following allocation: Capitalize on trends such as AI proliferation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and valuation recovery in Asian markets while avoiding long-term bonds, high-yield debt, and weak sectors in mature markets [15].