茅台出手！立马大涨价

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a new volume control policy after its wholesale price fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, leading to a rapid price rebound for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai [2]. Group 1: Price Recovery - On December 14, 2025, the wholesale reference price for a 500ml bottle of 53-degree Feitian Moutai rose to 1570 yuan, and the original box product was priced at 1590 yuan, marking an increase of 85 yuan and 95 yuan respectively from December 12 [2]. - The price recovery indicates a significant market response to the new volume control policy [2]. Group 2: Volume Control Policy - Kweichow Moutai's new volume control policy includes short-term measures to alleviate financial pressure on distributors by halting the issuance of all Moutai products until January 1, 2026 [4]. - This policy aims to prevent panic selling by distributors due to financial obligations [4]. - In the long term, Moutai plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products, including a 30% cut for 15-year products and 1-liter bottles, and a 50% reduction for zodiac-themed Moutai, with a complete halt on the supply of colorful rare Moutai [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The company’s production capacity is primarily determined by market demand, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.1% for base liquor production from 2021 to 2024, suggesting no significant increase in supply over the next five years [7]. - The white liquor consumption is expected to remain under pressure due to various factors, including limited traditional consumption scenarios and changing consumer demographics [7]. - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on transforming its business model and enhancing channel resilience to address supply-demand mismatches [7].