避孕药免税取消在即，新政如何搅动市场格局？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment in the value-added tax (VAT) policy for contraceptive drugs in China, effective January 1, 2026, is expected to impact pricing strategies and cost structures within the industry, potentially leading to price increases for consumers [1][3][8]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The exemption from VAT for contraceptive drugs and devices has been in place since the 1990s, but will be lifted starting January 1, 2026, as per the new VAT law [3]. - The change reflects the government's shift towards encouraging childbirth and optimizing population structure, while simultaneously imposing new tax burdens on contraceptive products [3][8]. Group 2: Industry Impact - Companies will need to reassess their cost structures and pricing strategies due to the new tax obligations, which may lead to increased end-user prices [1][5]. - Larger firms with significant sales volumes may experience profit pressure, while smaller enterprises could face more severe impacts due to their limited ability to absorb costs [4][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The contraceptive drug market is projected to grow to 8.5 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% [7]. - The market is characterized by a competitive landscape, with major players like Zizhu Pharmaceutical holding a significant market share in emergency contraceptives [6][7]. Group 4: Pricing Strategies - Experts suggest implementing differentiated pricing strategies to balance consumer acceptance and business objectives, with potential price increases kept within 3%-5% for high-repurchase products [5][8]. - Companies may also consider varying pricing based on sales channels, with urban areas facing more competition than rural regions [5].