反直觉走势！美联储降息周期下，美债收益率为何反而触及数月高位

Core Viewpoint - The unusual behavior of U.S. Treasury yields, which have risen despite the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates starting September 2024, is causing confusion in the financial markets [2][5][34]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Dynamics - The 10-year Treasury yield has increased to 4.17%, while the 30-year yield has reached 4.82%, nearing the highest levels since September [2]. - The recent sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is the worst seen in eight months, a situation not observed since the 1990s [5]. - Typically, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve signals a loosening of monetary policy, leading to lower Treasury yields; however, this time, yields have risen as the cuts have become more aggressive [5][34]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The swap market's expectations have shifted, with the terminal rate now projected to be 3.2%, and a reduction in the anticipated rate cuts for 2026 [6][8]. - Upcoming auctions of $39 billion in 10-year and $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries are expected to create further volatility in the market [8][11]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Internal Divisions - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of rate cuts, with a recent vote showing the highest number of dissenting opinions in six years [11][16]. - Hawkish officials are concerned that inflation has not yet reached target levels, while dovish members worry about a potential downturn in the labor market [16][19]. Group 4: Economic and Fiscal Context - The current situation reflects a tug-of-war between policy, market sentiment, and economic fundamentals, with differing views among market participants [19][34]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about future inflation and the sustainability of long-term Treasury holdings [24][34]. Group 5: Global Economic Implications - The disconnect between policy rates and long-term bond yields is not unique to the U.S., as similar trends are observed in the UK and Australia, indicating a broader global economic challenge of low growth and high inflation [32][34].