广发策略26年策略展望：挣脱牢笼，打破历史经验的桎梏

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new bull market in Chinese equity assets, driven by a decline in systemic risks in the Chinese economy and the global AI industry trend, suggesting that historical patterns may be broken in this new market phase [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a bull market that aligns with global equity trends, characterized by a focus on technology and resources, with valuation-driven growth and increasing market concentration [2][4]. - Historical patterns, such as the tendency for industries to not lead for more than three consecutive years, may be challenged, particularly in the technology and communication sectors [7][9]. Group 2: Profitability and Valuation - A significant adjustment in the profitability assessment framework is necessary, as A-share non-financial companies have stabilized their return on equity (ROE) for three consecutive quarters despite traditional economic sectors showing no significant improvement [6][20]. - The current market conditions suggest that A-shares may break the historical trend of not achieving valuation increases for more than two consecutive years, with expectations for continued moderate valuation growth [26][30]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The technology sector has seen a historic increase in institutional holdings, surpassing the previous threshold of 20% that was thought to indicate a market peak, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [12][14]. - The contribution to profit improvement in the first three quarters of the year has been predominantly from technology-related sectors, indicating a shift in the economic drivers towards technology and global demand [20][78]. Group 4: Economic Transformation - The transformation of the Chinese economy is reflected in the changing profit structure of A-share companies, moving away from traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure towards technology-driven productivity and global market integration [19][30]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a high-quality development narrative, with companies demonstrating resilience in profitability that exceeds macroeconomic data [20][78]. Group 5: Global Market Context - The global equity market is experiencing a bull market with distinct characteristics of differentiation, synchronization, and concentration, with A-shares showing a relatively lower proportion of declining stocks compared to other markets [41][45]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the evolving global economic landscape, particularly in relation to the AI-driven technological revolution and its impact on market dynamics [29][51].