浙商证券：市场分化之下A股冲高回落 多看少动、耐心等待

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a clear divergence this week, presenting a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with most broad-based indices experiencing a pullback after reaching highs [1][8] - Looking ahead, the weighted indices represented by the Shanghai Composite have barely managed to stay above the 5-week moving average but have not yet recovered the previous upward trend line; significant market divergence is observed behind the strong capital inflow into the computing power chain [1][5] Market Overview - The major indices reflect a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with most broad-based indices pulling back after reaching highs [2][9] - The computing power and hard technology sectors lead the market, while large cycles and consumer sectors show weakness [2] - Market sentiment indicates an increase in trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with IC stock index futures trading at a premium [2] - The margin financing balance has slightly increased, with the most significant net inflow seen in the non-ferrous metal ETF [2] - The valuation levels of major indices have seen a slight increase [2] Market Attribution - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing [3][10] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months [3][10] - The growth rate of China's social financing scale remained stable in November [4][11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December [4][11] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern due to insufficient strength in the weighted indices and significant industry divergence [5][12] - The Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices, which have not adjusted sufficiently, may follow the broader market's pullback after the Shanghai Composite touches the "upper boundary" pressure [5][12] - The STAR 50 and Hang Seng Technology indices are currently fluctuating in the "lower half of the range," with clear support at the lower boundary [5][12] - The brokerage sector has shown a slight rebound but requires close monitoring for future developments [5][12] Investment Strategy - Based on the ongoing market divergence and oscillation, the strategy suggests holding positions and avoiding chasing prices or increasing costs [6][13] - It is recommended to set targets based on the "left foot" classification of different broad-based indices and to prepare for gradual entry [6][13] - Industry allocation should focus on the brokerage sector, which is showing signs of lagging yet expanding market share, as well as the home appliance sector, which historically performs well in December, and the machinery sector, which has recently received positive news [6][13] - Individual stock selection should consider relatively low-positioned targets in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors, as well as low-positioned stocks above the annual line [6][13]