财经随笔记：黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（12.14）

Group 1: Market Overview - This week, gold exhibited a volatile upward trend, with a significant increase from Tuesday to Friday, ultimately closing the week with a bullish candlestick [1] - Global financial and industrial markets are focused on five main themes: the shift in Federal Reserve policy, the surge in precious metals, the divergence in central bank policies, geopolitical disturbances, and technological industry transformations [2] Group 2: Central Bank Dynamics - The Federal Reserve continues to show hawkish sentiments, with multiple officials scheduled to speak, indicating a contentious debate over interest rate cuts [3] - The Bank of England is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with a 90% probability of a rate cut anticipated by the market [3] - The European Central Bank is also expected to maintain its current interest rates, with market expectations of a 36% probability of a rate hike by the end of next year [3] - The Bank of Japan is projected to have a 75% probability of raising interest rates, although a single rate hike may not significantly strengthen the yen [4] Group 3: Key Economic Data - Important economic data releases include the U.S. unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, and CPI data, which are expected to influence market movements significantly [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - International gold prices showed a strong upward trend, facing resistance around the 4353/4354 area, leading to a significant pullback [6] - The wave structure analysis indicates that the market is currently in a B-wave rebound phase, with critical resistance at the previous high of 4381/4382 [7][9] - The support level around 4255-4265 is crucial for determining whether the market will continue its upward momentum or initiate a C-wave decline [12][13]