Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, led by Moutai and Wuliangye, is experiencing a price correction, with Moutai's prices rebounding after previously falling below the official guidance price, indicating a shift in the industry's focus towards channel health and genuine consumer demand [1][2][4]. Price Trends - On December 14, 2025, the wholesale price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai rose to 1590 RMB per bottle, an increase of 70 RMB from the previous day, while the price had previously dropped to 1495 RMB per bottle on December 12, falling below the official guidance price of 1499 RMB [1][2]. - The price of Moutai has shown a consistent downward trend throughout the second half of the year, dropping below 2000 RMB in June, 1800 RMB in August, and 1700 RMB by the end of October [4]. Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a need to balance channel inventory and consumer demand, leading to a shift from maintaining price benchmarks to ensuring healthy operations for distributors [1][5]. - Other major liquor brands are also facing pressure, with prices for core products declining compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a broader industry trend [5]. Strategic Responses - Moutai has implemented a volume control policy to alleviate pressure on distributors, including a temporary halt on product distribution until January 1, 2026, to prevent forced selling during a financially tight period for distributors [4][6]. - The new chairman of Moutai emphasized a balanced approach between short-term and long-term strategies, focusing on digital transformation and channel integration to adapt to the current market conditions [6]. Market Dynamics - The focus of competition is shifting from price maintenance to value realization and channel health, with industry leaders recognizing the need to clear speculative bubbles and return to rational consumption [7]. - The restructuring of the pricing system is seen as a necessary process for the industry to recover from speculative pressures, with the potential for stronger brands to optimize their internal structures during this period [7].
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