国金策略：国内中央经济工作会议定定调扩内需、反内卷，走出通缩路径明晰

Group 1 - The macro effects brought by AI investment will be more important than AI itself, as evidenced by the significant drop in AI tech stocks like Oracle and Broadcom, which reflects market concerns about future performance despite increased capital expenditure guidance [2][12][13] - The recent drop in AI stocks does not affect the upward adjustment of AI investment guidance, indicating a divergence between AI stock performance and the broader macroeconomic benefits of AI investment [2][12][33] Group 2 - The recent interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's announcement to purchase short-term government bonds are expected to strengthen the trend of investment exceeding consumption in the real economy [3][15][17] - The rising unemployment rate and declining average hourly wages in the U.S. are likely to catalyze further interest rate cuts, with a potential path from AI investment to monetary policy and then to real economic demand recovery [3][17] Group 3 - The Central Economic Work Conference in China has set the tone for expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution," clarifying the path out of deflation [4][20][22] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has shifted from government-led initiatives to endogenous drivers, emphasizing income growth for a broader population and activating private capital [4][22][23] - The conference's emphasis on "anti-involution" in the manufacturing sector is crucial for corporate profit recovery, which historically leads to improvements in employment and wages [4][23][26] Group 4 - Despite market volatility related to AI stock performance and interest rate expectations, the actual impacts on the fundamentals should be the focus, as AI investment continues to be adjusted upwards and will stimulate manufacturing demand [5][33] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource chains benefiting from AI investment and the recovery of global manufacturing, as well as opportunities in China's equipment exports and consumer sectors [5][33]