美银市场或已不信鹰派降息？哈塞特，带来买谣言和卖事实交易机会

Group 1 - The market widely anticipates a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December, with Bank of America suggesting investors "buy the rumor" and increase holdings in long-term bonds, predicting the 10-year Treasury yield will drop below 4% in the coming months [2][5][12] - Adjustments in inflation and economic growth forecasts are expected, providing a rationale for the rate cut, with the dot plot potentially indicating two more rate cuts next year [5][7] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell faces challenges in conveying a "hawkish rate cut" signal, as upcoming economic data releases may complicate his messaging [8][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a $45 billion monthly Treasury purchase plan starting in January, which is larger than market expectations and aims to bolster bank reserves [12][13] - This liquidity boost is seen as beneficial for the market, supporting arbitrage trading and keeping bond market volatility low, with expectations that MBS spreads could narrow [15] - Concerns arise regarding potential administrative interference in Federal Reserve decisions, particularly with rumors of Hassett potentially becoming the new chair, which could impact long-term interest rates [17][21] Group 3 - Bank of America recommends an overweight position in agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and CMBS, anticipating a decline in 30-year mortgage rates below 6% as the housing market picks up in spring [23][25] - CLOs are viewed as attractive investments due to stable pricing and decent yield opportunities, while high-yield bonds may underperform due to volatility in the AI sector and changing policy expectations [25][27] - The municipal bond issuance is projected to reach $640 billion next year, with recommendations to buy long-duration, high-rated bonds in the first half of the year for potential returns [27][29]