西南证券首席经济学家叶凡:2026年中国经济回稳向好趋势有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines clear policy directions and development signals for 2026, emphasizing the need for coordinated policy efforts and opportunities for industrial innovation [1]. Group 1: Policy Coordination and Economic Outlook - The conference highlights the importance of systematic and forward-looking policy layouts, shifting the focus from "promoting stability through progress" to "enhancing quality and efficiency" [2]. - Key tasks for 2026 include boosting consumption, which remains a priority, and addressing the "strong supply and weak demand" issue, indicating that these challenges can be resolved through efforts [2]. - The expected GDP growth rate for 2026 is around 4.9%, with nominal GDP growth projected to rebound to approximately 4.2% [3]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference reiterates the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures [3]. - Monetary policy will continue to adopt a supportive stance, with flexible tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity [3]. Group 3: Innovation and Domestic Demand - The focus on "domestic demand as the main driver" encompasses both consumption and investment needs, with an emphasis on optimizing supply to stimulate demand [4]. - The conference prioritizes innovation-driven growth, with plans to develop "artificial intelligence+" and establish international science and technology innovation centers [4][5]. - Financial innovation will support technological advancements, ensuring a positive cycle between technology, industry, and finance [5].