2025年快消品市场企稳 线下新兴渠道逆势增长

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is stabilizing in 2025 after a flat performance in 2024, with a 1.3% year-on-year sales growth in the first three quarters, driven by a 3.8% increase in sales volume [1] - The average selling price in the FMCG market has decreased by 2.4%, a reduction compared to the 3.4% decline in 2024, reflecting a trend towards price stabilization [1] Market Trends - The decrease in promotional activities has contributed to price stabilization, with the contribution of promotions to FMCG sales dropping from 24.1% to 23% [2] - Nearly 80% of the growth in the FMCG market in 2025 is attributed to third to fifth-tier cities, with sales volume increasing by 4%-6%, offsetting a 2%-3% decline in average selling prices [2] - The main drivers of growth include ongoing urbanization and robust local consumption, with more retailers and FMCG brands expanding into lower-tier cities [2] Category Performance - Packaged food categories have shown the fastest growth, with core staple foods and snacks driving a 3.4% increase in sales [2] - Household care products grew by 3.3%, supported by stable demand for cleaning supplies, while personal care categories showed signs of recovery with a 1.1% year-on-year growth [2] - In contrast, beverage sales declined by 1.1%, despite a 3.6% increase in volume, due to a 4.6% drop in average selling prices driven by intensified brand competition and market pressures [3] Consumer Behavior - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with a trend towards quality and price balance rather than solely seeking the lowest price [2] - The "consumption substitution" phenomenon remains prevalent, although some categories like juice and chocolate continue to experience premiumization [3] Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels are contracting, with traditional hypermarkets and convenience stores seeing a further decline in their share of FMCG sales [4] - Emerging channels such as warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores are experiencing rapid growth, with year-on-year increases of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [4] - The rise of snack collection stores is particularly significant for foreign brands, which view these channels as crucial for business growth and market penetration [5][6] Retailer Strategies - Retailers are increasingly focusing on convenience, value, and brand differentiation, with a trend towards developing private labels that offer innovative products rather than just low prices [6] - Collaboration between retailers and brands is becoming more common, blurring the lines between retail and brand ownership [6]