不止县城：三四线城市的“公务员经济”困局，往后日子可能更难

Core Viewpoint - The economic model of small towns and counties in China is heavily reliant on government employment and transfers, leading to unsustainable financial practices and a lack of competitive industries [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Structure - Many small towns have a high number of government employees relative to their population, with some counties having over 100 administrative bodies and thousands of civil servants [1][3]. - By 2020, labor compensation for civil servants accounted for 34% of total government expenditures in China, a figure that is increasing, indicating a growing financial burden without a corresponding increase in revenue [3][5]. - The reliance on land sales for fiscal revenue has diminished, with some counties depending on land finance for over 60% of their income, leading to severe financial strain as land sales decline [6][8]. Group 2: Population Dynamics - There is a significant outflow of young, capable individuals from small towns, leaving behind an aging population and reducing the consumer base [4][5]. - The competition for civil service positions has intensified, with the 2024 national civil service exam attracting over 2.83 million applicants, reflecting a lack of viable job alternatives in these regions [7][9]. Group 3: Business Environment - Many small towns have seen a surge in commercial developments that ultimately fail, leading to increased debt and financial losses for local governments [4][6]. - The emergence of low-paid temporary workers has created a distorted labor market, where low wages hinder consumer spending and further strain local economies [5][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current economic model is unsustainable, as it relies on government spending rather than fostering new wealth creation through industry and innovation [9][10]. - Some small towns are exploring alternative economic models, such as tourism and e-commerce, but these require significant investment and time to develop [8][9].