双焦弱势难改，碳酸锂震荡偏强运行｜期货周报

Group 1: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector saw a decline, with fuel oil down 3.54% and crude oil down 3.55% for the week [2] - The black coal sector experienced significant drops, with coking coal down 10.83%, iron ore down 1.11%, and coke down 6.94% [4] - The supply of coking coal is increasing, with domestic utilization rates at 85.31%, and Mongolian coal imports expected to rise significantly [4][5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand remains weak, with daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills down 3.10% week-on-week, leading to pressure on steel mill profitability [5] - The Mongolian coal export policy is expected to have a significant impact on the market, with a planned export of 90 million tons by 2026 [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the short-term outlook for coking coal and coke remains weak due to insufficient domestic production cuts and low winter storage replenishment [6] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract LC2601 closing up 6.9% to 96,980 yuan/ton [7] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in November was 95,350 tons, a 3.3% increase month-on-month and a 48.7% increase year-on-year [7] - Strong demand from the battery sector continues to support prices, with production of power and other batteries increasing by 3.3% month-on-month [7][8] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Policy - November CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a mild recovery in prices, while PPI fell 2.2% year-on-year [10] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a shift from "quantity targets" to "quality improvement" in economic policy, focusing on enhancing internal demand and innovation [13][14] - Analysts predict that the fiscal deficit rate will remain high, with expectations for monetary policy to continue supporting the economy through potential rate cuts [14]