2025年关下的车市：20家车企撒钱补贴 市场旺季为何消失？

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a tug-of-war between increased rigid expenditures due to the phasing out of purchase tax exemptions and the continuation of national subsidy policies like "trade-in" programs, although details remain uncertain [1] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - From January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with the current tax rate of 10% effectively becoming 5%, and the exemption cap dropping from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 confirmed the optimization of policies including the continuation of "trade-in" subsidies, setting a tone for the extension of current national subsidies beyond 2025 [1] - Over 20 automakers, including Zeekr, Xiaomi, and AITO, have launched "purchase tax guarantee" policies, promising to cover tax differences for customers who lock in orders by the end of the year, with a maximum coverage of 15,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Expectations - Despite proactive measures from automakers, there remains cautious sentiment regarding the fourth-quarter market outlook, with NIO's founder stating that the industry is unlikely to see the same tail effect as last year [2] - Data from the China Passenger Car Association indicates that from December 1-7, retail sales of passenger cars fell by 32% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, with new energy vehicle sales also declining [2][3] - The anticipated "tail effect" has turned into a "flat tail," with November retail sales of passenger cars at 2.225 million units, down 8.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month [4] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - The automotive market is facing a supply chain crunch, particularly in battery supply, as companies scramble to secure batteries for production [4][5] - The demand for batteries is rapidly shifting towards high-end products, but the expansion of high-end production capacity is limited due to technological barriers [5] - The storage market is experiencing explosive growth, diverting battery production capacity away from the automotive sector, with global storage cell shipments increasing by 98.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] Group 4: Future Market Trends and Growth Projections - The automotive industry is expected to see a slowdown in growth, with UBS predicting a decline in domestic passenger car sales growth from 8% in 2025 to -2% in 2026 [7][8] - The overall market growth forecast has been adjusted downward, with expectations of a 3% to 5% increase in automotive sales for the current year, and achieving 3% growth next year considered a reasonable target [8] - Future opportunities are anticipated to arise from structural adjustments and value exploration, with a focus on developing charging infrastructure and tapping into lower-tier markets [8]