2025年关下的车市：20家车企撒钱补贴，市场旺季为何消失？

Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a tug-of-war between increased costs due to the reduction of purchase tax exemptions and the continuation of government subsidies for trade-in programs, creating uncertainty for consumers and manufacturers [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - From January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will change from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with the tax rate effectively becoming 5% [2] - The maximum exemption amount will decrease from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan, impacting consumer decisions significantly [2] - Over 20 automakers, including Zeekr and Xiaomi, have introduced "purchase tax guarantee" policies to cover the tax difference for orders locked in by the end of the year, with a maximum coverage of 15,000 yuan [2][3] Group 2: Sales Trends - Despite the introduction of tax guarantees, there is a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter, with industry leaders indicating that a significant sales spike similar to previous years is unlikely [3][4] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2024 showed a year-on-year decline of 32% and a month-on-month decline of 8% during the first week [2][3] - The anticipated "tail effect" in sales, where a surge typically occurs in the fourth quarter, has not materialized as expected, leading to a "flat tail" instead [5][6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are exhibiting a tendency to wait for clearer subsidy details before making purchases, which is dampening immediate demand [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding the continuation of national and local subsidies has led to a more cautious consumer approach, impacting overall sales [5][6] Group 4: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - The automotive industry is facing production challenges due to battery supply shortages, with some manufacturers having to switch suppliers to meet delivery commitments [6][7] - The demand for batteries is shifting towards high-end products, while the energy storage market is also consuming battery production capacity, leading to potential supply constraints [7][8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Predictions for 2026 suggest a slowdown in domestic passenger vehicle sales growth, with estimates indicating a potential decline of 2% compared to an 8% growth in 2025 [9][10] - The market is expected to shift focus towards structural adjustments and value extraction, with opportunities emerging in underdeveloped markets and service-oriented consumption [9][10]