热点思考 | 两个美国：“K型经济”的成因与出路（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the emergence of "jobless growth" and "K-shaped recovery" in the U.S. economy since mid-2025, questioning whether the economy can escape these characteristics in 2026 [1][4][77] - The U.S. economy has shown structural imbalances characterized by "jobless growth" and "K-shaped economy," with non-farm payrolls declining significantly since early 2025, averaging only 18,000 new jobs per month from June to August, far below historical non-recession averages [1][5][77] - The "K-shaped economy" reflects a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households [20][30][67] Group 2 - The causes of the "K-shaped economy" are identified as a combination of economic slowdown, monetary easing, the impact of Trump's policies, and a structural bull market in U.S. stocks, with "jobless growth" being a primary factor [2][43][64] - The labor market has become increasingly relaxed, with low-wage groups feeling the economic downturn first and recovering last, indicating a structural issue in income and wealth distribution [2][53][67] - The article highlights that the "K-shaped gap" is difficult to bridge, raising the question of whether growth will be inclusive or if recession will eliminate wealth [3][77][94] Group 3 - The article posits that the U.S. economy is in a late cycle, with a shift from labor-driven growth to capital and technology-driven growth, leading to a decline in job opportunities and stagnant income growth [40][53][77] - The impact of tariffs and immigration policies has contributed to the decline in job creation, with a significant portion of the slowdown attributed to government layoffs and the effects of tariffs on employment [56][59][64] - The long-term trend of income and wealth inequality in the U.S. has been exacerbated since the 1980s, with the top 1% of income earners capturing a larger share of wealth, indicating a systemic issue in wealth distribution [67][94]