一反常态！玉米“黑12月”行情缺席？

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing an unusual price increase in October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests. This anomaly is attributed to significant changes in domestic and international corn supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a decrease in domestic corn inventory, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation even after the new harvest [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to adverse weather conditions, which has further pressured prices. In contrast, the Northeast region has better quality corn, increasing regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant growth in the number of pigs and poultry, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were observed due to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing intentions. The demand pull effect has weakened as companies completed their inventory replenishment [1]. - Analysts predict that the Northeast region is unlikely to see large-scale grain sales in late December, as farmers are reluctant to sell due to favorable storage conditions and supportive pricing policies [3]. - The corn price is expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks and increased supply [4].