Group 1 - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026 economic work, with expectations for a "cross-year market" and "spring excitement" rising among broker reports [1] - The policy focus on "expanding domestic demand and countering involution" is expected to lead the market out of deflation, with technology sectors like AI computing power and commercial aerospace being key offensive directions [1][4] - There is a growing preference for low-volatility, high-dividend assets, indicating a potential market style switch [1][3] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests seeking intersection in configurations, focusing on products with overseas exposure and positive changes in domestic demand as catalysts [2] - The report emphasizes that while external demand products have been validated, the potential for exceeding expectations is limited, and investors' low expectations could lead to valuation elasticity if domestic demand surprises positively [2] - The focus remains on industries where China has a global share advantage, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, with an emphasis on companies that can enhance global pricing power [3] Group 3 - The market is expected to enter a new phase of recovery, with significant support from previous price levels and a shift in investor sentiment following recent adjustments [5] - Structural risks are emerging, which could hinder the sustained strength of advantageous themes, as indicated by high transaction concentration [5][6] - The focus on low-volatility and stable return assets is increasing, with potential interest in service consumption sectors like aviation, duty-free, and hotels [3][12] Group 4 - The central economic work conference has highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and addressing involution, clarifying the path out of deflation [7][19] - The emphasis on enhancing the income of middle and low-income groups and stimulating private investment indicates a shift towards endogenous growth drivers [7] - The conference also pointed out the need for a unified national market and the deepening of anti-involution measures, which are crucial for the recovery of corporate profits and subsequent improvements in resident income [8] Group 5 - The new policy deployment is expected to support the A-share market's cross-year performance, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [9] - The historical performance of the A-share market during the start of the "13th Five-Year" and "14th Five-Year" plans suggests a positive outlook for 2026 [9] - The report indicates that the market may experience fluctuations due to various domestic and international events, but the overall economic policy is expected to remain supportive [9] Group 6 - The AI industry is characterized by a competition in full-stack capabilities and deep penetration into various application scenarios [10][11] - Domestic firms are focusing on building a full-stack system in the computing hardware sector, with significant advancements in AI solutions and infrastructure [11] - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive growth in related sectors, including telecommunications and high-spec data centers [11][16] Group 7 - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a period of heightened activity, supported by new policies and government initiatives [17] - The establishment of a national commercial aerospace development fund aims to attract private investment and enhance the capabilities of commercial companies [17] - Recent advancements in satellite internet and frequent launches are expected to benefit the entire aerospace industry chain [17]
十大券商一周策略:跨年行情蓄势待发,风格切换可能会越来越强,关注低位价值板块
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-15 00:08