一反常态逆势上涨 玉米“黑12月”行情缺席？

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices have shown an unusual upward trend since mid-October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests, primarily driven by significant changes in domestic and international corn supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a tightening supply situation, with domestic old grain stocks continuing to decline [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to persistent rainy weather, while Northeast corn quality is relatively better, adding regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant year-on-year growth in pig and poultry inventories, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were attributed to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing willingness as previous inventory replenishment phases concluded [1]. - The market sentiment shifted towards reluctance to sell, compounded by profit-taking activities, resulting in a significant price pullback [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that corn prices will remain in a high-level oscillation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks as farmers seek to repay loans and purchase new agricultural supplies [3]. - Despite short-term upward momentum potentially weakening, factors such as tight supply, increased winter logistics costs, and growing feed demand will continue to support prices [3]. - The acceptance of high-priced corn by downstream sectors remains low, and the price advantage of imported substitutes in southern markets may limit the upward potential for corn prices [3].