供应转松 焦煤重启跌势

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures prices have entered a downward trend, with a significant drop of over 20% from the peak in early November, driven by changes in fundamentals, policy direction, and market sentiment [1] Supply Side - The main driver for the recent decline in coking coal prices is the easing supply conditions, with a slight decrease of 0.3% in weekly production from 523 coking coal mines, and a year-on-year reduction of 12% in premium coal production due to exhausted annual production quotas and safety inspections [2] - Domestic coal washing plants have seen a 3.2% increase in inventory, indicating ongoing supply pressure throughout the industry chain [2] - The previously supportive import contraction has reversed, with high import volumes at key ports, including a record daily throughput of 317,900 tons at the Ceke port on December 8 [2] Demand Side - The steel industry, a core consumer of coking coal, is facing dual pressures of profit shrinkage and production decline, with the average daily pig iron output dropping to 2.29 million tons, nearly 120,000 tons lower than the peak in October [3] - The operating rate of sampled steel mills has decreased to 78.63%, leading to a significant reduction in procurement activities for coking coal, with inventory days at coking plants rising to 12.32 days [3] - The second round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, with a cumulative decrease of 110 yuan per ton, further compressing profits and weakening the purchasing willingness of coking enterprises [3] Inventory Situation - Both upstream and downstream sectors are experiencing inventory accumulation, with northern ports seeing a continuous increase in coking coal stocks for four weeks, reaching 2.86 million tons, with over 60% being Mongolian coal [4] - Although downstream inventory has not significantly increased, the rising inventory days at coking plants and steel mills indicate a slowdown in purchasing activities [4] Market Outlook - In the short term, the demand for winter storage before the Spring Festival may provide temporary support for coking coal prices, with expectations for inventory replenishment to reach 14-15 days by early January [5] - However, in the medium to long term, coking coal prices are expected to remain weak, with anticipated increases in total coal imports from Mongolia and Russia, and a potential reduction in pig iron production due to new export licensing regulations for steel [5]