复盘螺矿比历史走势

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical trends of the rebar-iron ore price ratio (螺矿比), which has been declining since 2022 and is approaching historical lows by November 2025 [1] - The analysis focuses on two significant periods of rising rebar-iron ore ratios: 2014-2015 and 2017-2018, highlighting the underlying factors driving these trends [1][4] - In the 2014-2015 period, the rebar-iron ore ratio increased from 3.7 to 6.2, driven by a larger decline in iron ore prices compared to rebar prices, despite both experiencing downward trends [2][3] Group 2 - During 2014, iron ore supply growth outpaced demand, leading to record-high port inventories and a subsequent increase in the rebar-iron ore ratio from 3 to 5 [2] - The ratio saw significant increases during specific periods in 2014, particularly from January to June, September to November, and in March 2015, as iron ore inventories began to decline [3] - In the 2017-2018 period, the rebar-iron ore ratio peaked at 10, with rebar prices rising from 1500 CNY/ton to 2400 CNY/ton, while iron ore prices remained relatively stable [4][5] Group 3 - The article notes that the increase in the rebar-iron ore ratio does not necessarily correlate with rising steel profits, as seen in the 2014-2015 period where profits declined despite the ratio increase [7] - In contrast, the 2017-2018 period saw rising steel profits alongside an increasing rebar-iron ore ratio, attributed to a bottleneck in steel supply and increased demand from the real estate sector [7][8] - The divergence in inventory trends between steel and iron ore is highlighted as a critical factor for the rising rebar-iron ore ratio, with steel inventories decreasing while iron ore inventories increased significantly [9] Group 4 - The article concludes that the rebar-iron ore ratio struggles to rise during absolute price increases due to the higher volatility of iron ore prices compared to rebar prices [10] - It emphasizes that in scenarios of rising absolute prices, iron ore prices tend to be more elastic, which negatively impacts the rebar-iron ore ratio [10] - Conversely, during price declines, the rebar-iron ore ratio may increase as steel mills reduce production in response to falling demand, leading to a more pronounced rise in the ratio under administrative production limits [10]