徽商期货：美联储降息落地 白银继续走强

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve continued to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, aligning with market expectations, and is anticipated to have one more rate cut next year [1][2] - The Fed's officials have become more optimistic about economic growth and inflation prospects, maintaining unemployment rate forecasts consistent with September [1][3] - The Fed initiated the purchase of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds to ensure sufficient reserve supply, with the timing and scale exceeding previous expectations [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed has raised GDP growth expectations for this year and the next three years while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points [3] - Inflation expectations have been further reduced, with projections indicating a return to 2% by 2028, reflecting a more optimistic view of the economy moving towards a "soft landing" [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with a projected market shortfall of 2,950 tons in 2025, as global silver has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years [4] - Recent trends show a significant decline in COMEX silver inventories, dropping from 16,500 tons in early October to 14,200 tons, while Shanghai silver stocks have rebounded after a decline [4] Group 4: Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 66, nearing the low point of 2023, driven by a significant rise in silver prices amid high gold price consolidation [5][6] - Silver's price sensitivity to economic cycles is greater than that of gold, with industrial demand for silver accounting for nearly 60% compared to gold's 10% [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The combination of interest rate cuts, tight supply, and optimistic market sentiment is expected to support silver prices in the short term, with potential volatility due to market sentiment shifts [6] - The upcoming COMEX silver futures delivery and changes in inventory levels will be critical to monitor for price movements [4][6]