3 6 Ke·2025-12-15 01:28Core Insights - The "OpenAI concept stocks" have seen a significant decline, with major companies like Oracle and Broadcom experiencing substantial stock price drops due to concerns over the viability of their contracts with OpenAI [1][15] - Oracle's stock fell 27.7%, losing $209.4 billion in market value, while Broadcom's stock dropped 11%, resulting in a $219.2 billion loss in market capitalization [17] - OpenAI's financial commitments and the long return cycles associated with its contracts have raised doubts about its revenue potential and ability to fulfill obligations [8][12] Company Performance - Broadcom reported a Q4 FY2025 earnings per share of $1.95, exceeding analyst expectations, with revenues of $18.02 billion, also above forecasts [4] - Despite having $73 billion in AI product orders, Broadcom's low profit margins on AI revenue compared to non-AI revenue have caused investor disappointment [6][7] - Oracle's total revenue for Q2 FY2026 was $16.06 billion, falling short of expectations, while its remaining performance obligations surged 438% to $523 billion, raising concerns about its future financial health [9][12] Market Reactions - The combined market value of major AI companies dropped by $547 billion (approximately 3.8 trillion RMB) in a single day, reflecting investor anxiety over the sustainability of OpenAI's business model [1][16] - Companies deeply tied to OpenAI, including Oracle, SoftBank, Microsoft, and Nvidia, have collectively seen their stock prices decline significantly since late October [16][17] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI's recent launch of GPT-5.2 is seen as a reactive measure to increasing competition from Google's Gemini 3, which poses a significant threat to OpenAI's market position [3][18] - Analysts suggest that OpenAI's reliance on external partnerships and its high operational costs may hinder its ability to compete effectively against Google's integrated ecosystem [23][25] Financial Viability - HSBC's report indicates that OpenAI may face a cumulative free cash flow deficit of $207 billion by 2030, necessitating additional debt or equity financing to sustain operations [19] - The financial strain on Oracle, with a projected capital expenditure increase to $50 billion, raises concerns about its ability to manage its commitments to OpenAI [12][14]