纸面繁荣、股东撤退，鸣鸣很忙港股IPO背后的生态裂痕

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth strategy of the company, which relies on low prices and aggressive expansion, is facing significant challenges, including franchisee closures, low profit margins, quality control risks, and shareholder sell-offs [2][3][11]. Group 1: Company Growth and Expansion - The company has experienced explosive growth, increasing its store count from 1,902 in 2022 to 14,394 in 2024, with GMV rising from 6.447 billion RMB to 55.5 billion RMB [3][7]. - By September 2025, the total number of stores is expected to exceed 20,000, covering 28 provinces and 1,327 counties, making it the largest in the domestic snack food chain industry [2][3]. - The growth is primarily driven by a franchise model, with 98.9% of revenue coming from sales to franchisees, and only 0.15% of stores being self-operated [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Despite impressive revenue growth, the company faces a significant cash flow issue, with net cash flow from operating activities turning negative at -230 million RMB in 2024, contrasting with a net profit of 834 million RMB [11]. - The company's gross margin has remained low at around 7.5% from 2022 to 2024, significantly lower than competitors like Wancheng Group, which had a gross margin of 10.76% during the same period [7][10]. - Inventory levels surged from 632 million RMB in 2023 to 1.674 billion RMB in 2024, a 165% increase, raising concerns about potential losses due to perishable goods [10]. Group 3: Franchisee Issues and Market Saturation - The company has seen a rise in franchisee closures, with the number of closed stores increasing from 14 in 2022 to 273 in 2024, leading to a closure rate increase from 0.7% to 1.9% [7]. - The cancellation of the "distance protection" policy has led to oversaturation in certain areas, extending the payback period for franchisees from 1-1.5 years to 2-3 years, with some relying on subsidies to maintain profitability [7][11]. Group 4: Quality Control and Brand Reputation - Quality control issues have emerged, with reports of products failing to meet safety standards and the sale of counterfeit snacks, which could damage consumer trust [10]. - The company has a high SKU count of 3,605, with 60% being private label products, complicating quality management [10]. Group 5: Shareholder Sentiment and Governance - Early investors, including Liangpinpuzi and Yanjinpuzi, have exited their investments, raising concerns about the company's future prospects [11]. - The governance structure has been criticized, with the same individual serving as both chairman and CEO, which may violate corporate governance guidelines [11].