日本大型制造业信心跃升四年新高 央行加息预期再获强化

Group 1 - The confidence index for large manufacturers in Japan has risen to a four-year high, reinforcing market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week [1][3] - The Tankan survey revealed that the large manufacturing sentiment index increased from 14 in September to 15 in December, aligning with economists' median expectations [1] - The large non-manufacturing sentiment index remained steady at 34, close to its highest level since the early 1990s, indicating that more companies view their business conditions as "good" rather than "poor" [1] Group 2 - The Tankan survey indicates that Japanese companies have not significantly felt the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which the Bank of Japan has highlighted as a source of uncertainty [3] - The survey results provide the Bank of Japan with insights into how companies are responding to the U.S. tariff adjustments, particularly in the oil and coal manufacturing sector [3] - The continued weakness of the yen benefits export-oriented companies but raises operational costs for service sector firms, which employ a majority of Japan's workforce [3] Group 3 - Companies expect the yen to trade at 147.06 against the dollar for the current fiscal year, a further depreciation from the previous forecast of 145.68 [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has emphasized that uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and initial progress in wage negotiations will be key factors in considering the next interest rate hike [3] - Concerns have arisen regarding the economic spillover effects from deteriorating Japan-China relations, particularly following comments made by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida about Taiwan, which have led to a significant drop in Chinese tourist numbers [3]