对华技术封锁终将成中国自主创新“磨刀石”

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. policy allowing Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to "approved customers" in China, with a 25% revenue share to the government, raises questions about the value of this transaction for Chinese buyers, focusing on cost-effectiveness, reliability, and competition [1] Cost-Effectiveness - The policy shift indicates a move from a complete blockade to a limited opening with profit-sharing, reflecting a dual strategy of technological control and economic gain [3] - Nvidia's high-end AI chip market share in China plummeted from 95% to 0% after the ban on H20 chips, and the newly allowed H200 chips are considered "second-tier" products with a 25% revenue cut, reducing their cost-effectiveness for Chinese users [3] Reliability Concerns - The U.S. government's inconsistent policies have heightened global supply chain risks, and the temporary lifting of the H200 chip ban does not restore trust among Chinese companies [4] - Concerns about potential "backdoors" in Nvidia's chips, along with previous investigations into security risks, have further diminished market confidence [4] Emerging Competitors - Domestic AI chips in China are now included in official procurement lists, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in technology [5] - The development of a comprehensive domestic technology system is underway, supported by significant funding and collaborative innovation, allowing local chips to compete in various sectors [5] - While the H200 chip may serve as a temporary solution in specific scenarios, the long-term strategy emphasizes the importance of independent technological advancement and ecosystem development [5][6]