Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-15 02:27Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low valuation, with the core issue being performance. A demand turning point is expected in 2026, where traditional consumption (such as liquor and restaurant supply chains) may see a bottom reversal and elasticity release after sufficient performance adjustments. New consumption is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to structural dividends, leading to a coexistence of overall recovery and structural prosperity in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Valuation - The food and beverage sector from 2021 to 2024 will primarily focus on performance release to eliminate valuation bubbles. By the end of 2025, sector valuations are expected to return to historical low ranges, but sluggish consumer power will keep the sector in a performance adjustment phase, with the core issue reverting to the performance side [2]. - The sector is expected to experience a significant performance recovery in 2026, with traditional consumption showing potential for performance elasticity release after a bottoming out phase [4]. Group 2: Structural Changes and Consumption Trends - The economic structural transformation and the recovery of household balance sheets are expected to make 2026 a demand-side turning point. The coexistence of "L-shaped" demand and structural characteristics in consumption is anticipated, with new consumption maintaining performance prosperity while old consumption undergoes performance clearance [3]. - The structural characteristics of consumption in China will continue for a considerable time, driven by high tolerance for innovation, with new categories, channels, and markets expected to continuously drive performance release in consumer goods [5]. Group 3: Traditional vs. New Consumption - Traditional consumption, particularly liquor, is expected to be a key indicator in 2026, with anticipated performance adjustments leading to a phase of improvement. This will mark the bottoming of food and beverage performance, with certain segments like frozen foods, seasonings, and dairy products showing good inventory and low performance baselines [4]. - New consumption is characterized by ongoing structural dividends, with the sector benefiting from the economic transformation and demographic cycles, ensuring sustained high performance levels [5].