美联储三连降日本却要加息！全球货币政策撕裂 A股跨年行情需谨慎

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant divergence in global central bank policies, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates while the Bank of Japan signals a potential rate hike, marking a shift from synchronized monetary policy to country-specific strategies [1][3][6] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is a "risk management adjustment" due to signs of a slowing job market and a moderate decline in inflation, while the Bank of Japan faces rising core inflation and is compelled to end its long-standing low-interest policy [3][4] - The contrasting monetary policies of the US and Japan are reshaping global capital flows, with a notable increase in yen carry trade, which has reached 142 trillion yen (approximately 930 billion USD), affecting over 30% of the Japanese stock market's value [3][4] Group 2 - The European Central Bank maintains its interest rates, while the Bank of England is expected to implement a rate cut, contributing to the ongoing divergence in global monetary policies [6][7] - The tightening of global liquidity due to Japan's potential rate hike may lead to capital outflows from emerging markets, despite recent inflows of 40.48 billion USD into these markets [4][9] - The divergence in policies is expected to create structural differences in market impacts, with China emerging as a safe haven for foreign capital, receiving 18.07 billion USD in equity fund inflows, accounting for 44.65% of total emerging market inflows [9]