中国宣布钢铁出口重大变革！一场迟到的能源红利保卫战打响

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will implement export license management for steel products starting January 1, 2026, marking the end of 16 years of free steel exports, reflecting a significant policy shift in response to environmental and economic pressures [1][3][12]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The announcement indicates a historical return to export management policies, with the last similar measure implemented in 2007 before being lifted in 2009 due to the financial crisis [12]. - The new export license management will cover 268 customs product codes, including key categories such as non-alloy pig iron, recycled steel raw materials, steel billets, hot-rolled coils, and cold-rolled sheets [10]. - The management approach will include a "one batch, one certificate" system, allowing companies to apply for export licenses starting December 15, 2025, for the year 2026 [10]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The steel industry has seen a significant increase in export volume, with 107.7 million tons exported in the first 11 months of 2025, a 6.7% year-on-year increase, and an expected annual total exceeding 115 million tons [3]. - However, the average export price has declined, leading to a "volume increase, price drop" cycle for low-value-added products, raising concerns about the sustainability of this export model [3][6]. - The steel sector is responsible for 15% of China's total carbon emissions, and the new policy aims to alleviate domestic emission pressures while transitioning to a more sustainable production model [6][20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The new export regulations are expected to reshape the export market, with traditional markets in Southeast Asia and the EU likely to see reduced export volumes due to dual restrictions of licenses and tariffs [17]. - Companies are anticipated to shift focus towards emerging markets in Africa and Latin America, with steel exports to Africa projected to increase by 317,000 tons in 2025, accounting for 43% of the growth [17]. - The policy is expected to redirect resources from low-end steel exports to high-end manufacturing sectors, such as new energy vehicles and aerospace, where demand for high-quality steel is strong [18][20].