Soul距离IPO又近一步？高度依赖虚拟礼物打赏，对赌压力悬而未决

Core Viewpoint - Soulgate Inc., the parent company of Soul, has submitted its fourth application for a mainboard listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after three previous unsuccessful attempts, aiming to leverage AI-driven emotional social networking to regain investor interest while showcasing profitable financial data [1][10]. Financial Performance - Soul reported revenues of 16.67 billion in 2022, increasing to 19.82 billion in 2023, and projected to reach 22.11 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15.2% [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is 3.61 billion, with projections of 3.37 billion for 2024 and 2.86 billion for the first eight months of 2025 [1][7]. - Despite these figures, the company has accumulated losses exceeding 8.22 billion over three years, with net losses of 5.08 billion, 1.29 billion, 1.49 billion, and 0.36 billion for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first eight months of 2025, respectively [7][8]. Revenue Structure - Soul's revenue is heavily reliant on emotional value services, which accounted for over 90% of total income from 2022 to 2025, while advertising and other business revenues contributed less than 10% [8][11]. - The company faces challenges due to its single revenue structure, which could be impacted by regulatory changes affecting live streaming and virtual consumption [8][10]. Market Position - Soul has seen a decline in user growth, with average monthly active users (MAU) dropping to 26.2 million in 2024, a decrease of 17.09% from its peak in 2021 [9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with platforms like Douyin, Kuaishou, and Xiaohongshu encroaching on its user base, making it difficult for Soul to replicate the connection efficiency of WeChat or the content moat of Bilibili [9]. Debt Pressure - The company is under significant pressure from a convertible redeemable preferred stock liability of 12.4 billion, stemming from agreements made during previous funding rounds, which could trigger a liquidity crisis if the IPO fails [10][13]. - This debt pressure is a driving force behind Soul's repeated attempts to go public, as it seeks to maintain valuation and secure a listing window [10][12]. Strategic Shift - Soul has pivoted towards an AI+social strategy, introducing its self-developed model "Soul X" for user matching and content generation, although these AI functionalities have yet to generate independent revenue streams [10][11]. - The AI strategy is currently more focused on enhancing user experience rather than serving as a direct revenue generator, raising concerns about its effectiveness in improving user payment willingness or reducing customer acquisition costs [11][12]. IPO Journey - Soul's IPO journey has been fraught with challenges, having attempted to list in the U.S. in 2021 before shifting focus to Hong Kong, where it has faced multiple setbacks due to external market conditions and internal operational issues [12][13]. - The upcoming IPO attempt will be scrutinized closely by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, particularly regarding how the company addresses previous concerns about its business model and debt obligations [13].