Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-15 03:24Core Viewpoint - The changes in institutional liability behavior have become a major driving factor for trends and structures in the equity market this year, despite marginal changes in macroeconomic conditions and liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Behavior and Market Trends - The shift in institutional liability behavior is more fundamental than the observed capital flow phenomena, indicating a reversal from years of chasing low-risk assets to a focus on performance-driven technology stocks and a withdrawal from long-duration bonds [2]. - The increase in the proportion of dividend insurance, the rise of multi-asset products in wealth management, and the conversion of maturing fixed deposits have indirectly influenced long-term changes in institutional behavior [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Predictions - The current bull market is expected to continue, driven by liabilities pushing institutional allocations towards the stock market, with 2025 seen as a turning point for a shift back to equities [3]. - As of the first three quarters of this year, net inflows into the stock market from insurance amounted to approximately 1.44 trillion yuan, while pension funds contributed around 418.1 billion yuan [3][12]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that institutional inflows into the stock market could reach 3.1 trillion yuan, with the scale of public fixed income products expected to double from this year's levels [3][5]. Group 3: Specific Contributions from Different Sectors - Insurance sector: The expected incremental funds entering the market from insurance in 2026 are projected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan, increasing to 1.7 trillion yuan in 2027, with the equity allocation needing to rise to 18.31% [4][18][22]. - Wealth management: With a significant amount of fixed deposits maturing, the expected incremental funds from wealth management products are estimated to be 905.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.3567 trillion yuan in 2027, assuming a gradual increase in equity investment [23][24]. - Pension funds: Long-term investment strategies are expected to drive pension funds to contribute approximately 678.8 billion yuan in 2026 and 801 billion yuan in 2027 to the stock market [4][15]. Group 4: Overall Market Dynamics - The total net inflow into the stock market for 2025 is projected to be around 2.26 trillion yuan, with contributions from various sectors including insurance, wealth management, and foreign investments [3][16]. - The growth in the broad fixed income plus (固收+) fund scale is expected to at least double, potentially reaching 36.099 trillion yuan by 2026 [5].