摩根士丹利基金李圣谣：2026年美股关注盈利兑现，A股处“双修复”早中期｜2025华夏机构投资者年会

Core Viewpoint - The 19th Huaxia Institutional Investor Annual Conference highlighted the themes of "vitality and resilience, innovation and empowerment," focusing on future development paths in response to current economic challenges [2]. Group 1: U.S. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's Li Shengyao expressed a cautiously optimistic view for the U.S. stock market in 2026, noting that further increases in stock prices will depend more on earnings realization rather than valuation expansion [3][4]. - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "moderate slowdown," with inflation showing signs of decline, and the market has priced in expectations for one to two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - Li believes that the A-share market is currently in the early to mid-stage of a "dual recovery," with improved performance and potential for higher elasticity [3][4]. - Industrial profits are beginning to recover, driven by new productive forces in AI hardware, high-end equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which may enhance profit margins [3][4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy for 2026 - The proposed global asset allocation strategy for 2026 includes a foundation in global fixed income, selective investments in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and allocations in overseas equities and commodities [5]. - The strategy emphasizes finding opportunities in global fixed income markets, particularly as domestic interest rates rebound and major overseas economies enter a gradual rate-cutting phase [5]. - Li highlighted the potential for excess returns from mid-to-high-end manufacturing, AI hardware, and industrial automation within the Chinese market, supported by supply chain autonomy and market depth [5].