BBMarkets：政府停摆结束后，数据接连发布，美联储还会降息吗？

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown previously caused a lack of key economic data, leading to a month-long information vacuum in the market, but recent employment and inflation reports are expected to validate market expectations [1] - Core inflation in the U.S. remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with futures markets pricing in two 25 basis point rate cuts next year, which is double the Fed's own projections [3] - Weak signals in the labor market are emerging, and if further data confirms a cooling labor market, the Fed may have to sacrifice some inflation targets to avoid a recession, potentially leading to a new rally in U.S. Treasuries [3] Group 2 - Following the Fed's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, Chairman Powell expressed concerns about slowing hiring activities, which contributed to a nearly 15 basis point drop in Treasury yields from recent highs [3] - To mitigate uncertainty, traders are adjusting their portfolio durations, with a 30% increase in trading volume for short-term Treasuries [4] - The options market shows a surge in trading volume for put options linked to short-term Treasuries, with some institutions constructing bullish strategies betting on rate cuts in Q1 of next year, potentially leading to significant returns if employment data falls short of expectations [4]