车市年终“翘尾”失败，2026年市场承压

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in 2026 is expected to face significant pressure due to the lack of specific national subsidies and the introduction of a 50% purchase tax on new energy vehicles, leading to a cooling market environment [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The automotive market is experiencing a downturn, with November retail sales of passenger vehicles at 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [3][4]. - The decline in sales is attributed to the exhaustion of local subsidies and the cancellation of high-interest financing options, which has led to a lack of consumer confidence [1][3][7]. - The expectation of a year-end sales surge has not materialized, with dealers reporting a significant drop in customer traffic compared to previous years [1][4][5]. Group 2: Subsidy Policies - The central government's vehicle replacement subsidy is set to continue until December 31, 2025, but many local subsidies have already been depleted, impacting consumer purchasing behavior [1][5]. - The introduction of a 50% purchase tax on new energy vehicles starting January 1, 2026, is expected to further strain the market, with industry experts predicting a challenging year ahead [1][3][7]. - Some regions are still offering local subsidies to stimulate sales, with reports of increased customer traffic in areas where such incentives are available [6][10]. Group 3: Company Responses - In response to the market conditions, various automakers are implementing their own discount policies, including covering the additional purchase tax for customers who order vehicles before the end of 2025 [2][9]. - Companies like Dongfeng Honda and Lynk & Co are optimistic about maintaining stable sales in the fuel vehicle segment and expect growth in hybrid and plug-in hybrid models [8][9]. - Automakers are developing strategies to adapt to changing policies, including monitoring local subsidy dynamics and adjusting product offerings to meet consumer demand [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, there are potential growth points for the automotive market, including government support for rural consumption and the continued growth of export markets [10]. - The automotive industry is encouraged to diversify into after-sales services and other business areas to mitigate the impact of declining new vehicle sales [10].