日本经济在悬崖边缘狂奔，高市早苗可能撑不了多久了，“短命首相”没那么容易逆天改命

Economic Policy and Stimulus - The new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, has proposed a substantial fiscal stimulus package totaling 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 114 billion USD) aimed at revitalizing Japan's stagnant economy through low interest rates, yen depreciation, and loose fiscal policies [1] - The initial impact of this stimulus has led to a rebound in the Japanese stock market, with the Nikkei index reaching historical highs [1] - However, the bond market has reacted negatively, with the 10-year government bond yield hitting its highest level since 2007, indicating underlying risks in the economic recovery strategy [1] Debt and Economic Challenges - Japan's national debt has reached 230% of GDP, raising concerns that further tax cuts and stimulus measures may exacerbate the financial crisis rather than alleviate it [3] - By the fiscal year 2025, government debt expenditures are projected to account for 24.5% of the budget, with half of that being interest payments, creating a cycle of borrowing to pay off existing debt [3] - Experts have expressed that Japan's economic situation is "worse than Greece," highlighting the severity of the fiscal challenges [3] Demographic Issues - Japan is facing a demographic crisis, with a projected population decline of 0.75% by 2024, leading to reduced labor force and increased social welfare and healthcare costs [3] - The aging population is likened to a ticking time bomb, intensifying economic pressures on the government [3] Foreign Policy and International Relations - Kishi's statement regarding Taiwan has raised concerns about her foreign policy approach, potentially complicating Japan's diplomatic relations, especially amid tensions between the US and China [5] - The government must navigate the balance between the two major economies while securing benefits for Japan in the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation [5] Structural Reforms and Innovation - Effective structural reforms are deemed essential for Japan to overcome its current economic challenges, with a focus on supply-side reforms in agriculture and manufacturing [5] - The need for technological innovation and improved productivity in small and medium-sized enterprises is critical, as Japan's labor productivity ranks low among OECD countries [7] - The success of Kishi's economic vision relies on effective policy execution and societal collaboration, but the immediate outlook appears bleak given the internal debt issues and external pressures [7]