电解铝：宏观轮动支撑铝价冲高 下半月情绪面或有降温

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices reached a three-year high in the first half of the month, primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment and market reactions to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's decision slightly exceeded expectations, leading to a moderate increase in the aluminum market [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting in China released positive signals, providing robust support for commodities [1] - Strong performance in silver and copper has positively influenced aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Supply constraints in the northwest have limited shipments, resulting in a decrease in social inventory [1] - Demand shows differentiated performance across consumption areas, with overall trading exhibiting resilience [1] - The sentiment in the market has shifted, maintaining high spot aluminum prices despite seasonal pressures [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - As sentiment cools in the latter half of the month and seasonal factors exert pressure, aluminum prices are expected to adjust to a range of 21,000 to 21,500 yuan per ton [1]