旺季需求与成本削减能否支撑联邦快递(FDX.US)利润超预期？

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is set to report its Q2 FY2026 earnings on December 18, with expectations of adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at $4.09 and revenue at $22.8 billion, following two previous quarters of exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - FedEx management anticipates a revenue growth of 4% to 6% year-over-year for FY2026, with unadjusted EPS expected between $14.20 and $16.00, and full-year adjusted EPS projected between $17.20 and $19.00 [1] - The company expects to incur a $1 billion loss this year due to trade disruptions caused by tariffs, including increased customs costs and a decline in shipping volumes, particularly between the U.S. and China [1] Group 2: Seasonal Demand Impact - Strong demand from the holiday shopping season is expected to boost FedEx's Q2 performance, with management indicating that seasonal results will remain moderately strong [2] - The upcoming quarterly EPS is anticipated to exceed last year's $4.05 [2] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and persistent high inflation have negatively impacted consumer confidence and growth expectations, leading to a decline in FedEx's performance [3] - The DRIVE program, launched in Q2 FY2023, aims to enhance long-term profitability through cost-cutting measures, which include reducing flight frequencies, grounding certain aircraft, and layoffs [3] - Cost reduction initiatives, particularly in line-haul transportation and production efficiency, are expected to support profit margins in Q2 [3] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - The market is looking forward to updates on FedEx's multi-year partnership agreement with Amazon, which involves FedEx delivering certain large packages for Amazon [4] - Recently, FedEx's competitor UPS has decided to reduce its business volume with Amazon, potentially benefiting FedEx's position in the market [4]