3 6 Ke·2025-12-15 04:15Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing significant attention and performance, with stocks like Tuojing Technology and Zhongke Feice rising over 10% during a recent market rebound, and the sector index increasing by 3.26% [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The surge in the semiconductor equipment sector is attributed to three main factors: the explosion of AI computing power, the upward cycle of storage, and the acceleration of domestic substitution, positioning the sector for substantial earnings realization [2][3]. - The global semiconductor industry is entering a recovery phase, with the global semiconductor market expected to reach $346 billion in the first half of 2025, marking an 18.9% year-on-year increase, and an annual growth of 15.4% to $728 billion [3]. Equipment Market Growth - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to see explosive growth, with global equipment shipments expected to reach nearly $100 billion by 2025 and $138.1 billion by 2026, driven primarily by high-performance demands from AI and HBM technologies [3][5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Major overseas storage manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with expected year-on-year growth exceeding 80% by 2025 [5]. Domestic Market Developments - In China, the semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $21.62 billion by mid-2025, accounting for 33.2% of the global market, making it the largest single market globally [8]. - Domestic companies like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies are accelerating their expansion efforts, with significant investments in production capacity [11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for storage is being driven by AI models, with AI servers requiring significantly more DRAM and NAND capacity compared to regular servers, leading to a super cycle in the storage industry [9][11]. - The domestic storage market faces a rigid supply gap, with a long-standing trade deficit in storage chips, necessitating urgent expansion efforts [11]. Equipment Procurement and Localization - The expansion of domestic storage manufacturers will not only fill local gaps but also enable participation in the global market, with significant investments in equipment procurement expected to exceed $10 billion [11]. - The current low localization rates of core semiconductor equipment present substantial opportunities for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share [12]. Long-term Industry Outlook - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to be driven by both technological iterations and domestic substitution, with continuous demand for new equipment arising from advancements in AI and storage technologies [13]. - Key investment areas include wafer manufacturing equipment, particularly etching, lithography, and thin-film deposition equipment, which collectively account for over 60% of the equipment market [14]. Investment Opportunities - The core equipment sector is identified as having the strongest growth certainty, with companies like Zhongwei and Tuojing Technology leading in market share for etching and thin-film deposition equipment [16]. - Platform leaders that offer comprehensive product lines for one-stop procurement are positioned to benefit from increased customer loyalty and growth potential [17]. - Niche markets with low localization rates present "small but beautiful" growth opportunities, particularly in measurement equipment [18]. Conclusion - The semiconductor equipment sector is transitioning from short-term pressures to a phase of growth certainty, with significant structural opportunities emerging as the global equipment market is expected to surpass $130 billion by 2026 [19].