【央行圆桌汇】主要央行政策路径分化 英国央行或步美联储后尘降息（2025年12月15日）

Central Bank Dynamics - President Trump favors Kevin Walsh or Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, emphasizing the need for interest rate cuts and suggesting a target rate of 1% or lower [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut this year and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1] - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on various sectors but overall resilience in the Canadian economy [4] - The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0%, signaling a commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, amid global economic uncertainties [5] - The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark rate steady at 3.60%, indicating the end of the rate-cutting cycle and a focus on assessing inflation [5] Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Chair Powell stated that monetary policy has no preset path and will be data-driven, acknowledging persistent inflation but noting improvements in core inflation [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supported the rate cut, emphasizing the need to balance inflation control with labor market protection [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns about assuming current inflation is temporary and advocated for more data before further rate cuts [3] - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt opposed the rate cut, citing ongoing high inflation and the need for a moderately tight monetary policy [3] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack hinted at a neutral policy stance, preferring a slightly more restrictive approach due to persistent inflation [3] Market Observations - The market anticipates that the European Central Bank will maintain its benchmark rate at 2%, with a focus on economic growth forecasts [8] - The Bank of England is expected to lower rates, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to rising unemployment and slowing inflation [9] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates only one rate cut in 2026, suggesting a more hawkish stance than market expectations [10] - The market pricing shows expectations for rate cuts across major central banks, with the Fed expected to cut by 54 basis points by the end of 2026 [11]