小摩：预期12月内地乘用车需求持续疲弱，明年补贴或延续但增加新要求

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that passenger car sales in mainland China grew only 3% month-on-month in November, below seasonal levels, primarily due to weak demand stemming from government subsidies being exhausted earlier than expected, leading to consumer hesitation [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - November passenger car sales in mainland China showed a modest month-on-month increase of 3%, which is lower than seasonal expectations [1] - Major electric vehicle manufacturers provided conservative sales guidance for Q4, and early December data suggests a continuation of weak trends [1] Group 2: Government Subsidies and Market Outlook - There is over a 50% chance that government subsidies or other forms of stimulus will continue into next year, but they may impose stricter requirements on vehicle technology, such as energy efficiency for new energy vehicles [1] - If subsidies continue, domestic passenger car demand is expected to remain flat; without subsidies, demand could decline by 3% to 5% [1] Group 3: Future Demand Projections - The first quarter of next year may see a seasonal decline of approximately 30% in demand for new energy passenger vehicles [1]