摩根大通2026年存储市场展望：今年巨头市值逼近1万亿美元，2027年1.5万亿美元

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the total market capitalization of leading storage chip manufacturers is approaching $1 trillion, with projections suggesting it could rise to $1.5 trillion by 2027, indicating over 50% upside potential for these companies [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The current cycle is expected to be the longest and strongest storage upcycle in history, with concerns about oversupply in DRAM due to new capacities in 2027 deemed unnecessary by Morgan Stanley's data models [2][5]. - The market is experiencing a "dual-track" pricing system, where strong B2B (enterprise/AI) demand supports high prices, while B2C (consumer) faces cyclical pressures [2][9]. Valuation Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the storage market size will reach approximately $420 billion by 2027, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.5x based on historical cycles, leading to a potential market capitalization of $1.5 trillion for leading storage manufacturers [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite concerns about new wafer fabs leading to oversupply, Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that DRAM supply growth will lag behind demand growth due to structural demand from AI and HBM [5][6]. - The supply-demand gap is expected to remain, with a projected shortfall of 3% to 5% in 2027, despite new capacities coming online [9]. Pricing Trends - Strong CSP (Cloud Service Provider) demand is expected to lead to a significant allocation of capacity to HBM, increasing its share of total DRAM capacity from 19% in 2025 to 28% in 2027 [9]. - DRAM average selling prices (ASP) are projected to surge by 53% in FY26, with NAND ASP increasing by approximately 30% [18]. AI and Technology Drivers - The rise of AI is driving demand for HBM and enterprise SSDs (eSSD), with AI servers requiring three times the SSD capacity of regular servers [17]. - HBM supply is expected to remain constrained, with a projected shortfall of 8% to 12% continuing through 2027 and possibly into 2028 [19]. Capital Expenditure Trends - While storage manufacturers are announcing capacity expansion plans, actual bit supply growth is expected to be challenged by physical migration issues [24]. - Equipment spending for storage wafer fabs is anticipated to grow significantly, outpacing overall capital expenditure growth [24].