政策正常化迈出关键一步！传日本央行最早下月开始出售ETF持仓

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as early as next month, a process projected to take decades to complete, with current ETF holdings valued at approximately 83 trillion yen (about 534 billion USD) as of the end of September [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Sale Plans - The BOJ announced a plan to sell its ETF and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs) at a rate of approximately 3.3 trillion yen annually for ETFs and 5 billion yen for J-REITs, marking the first specific mention of such a plan [4]. - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the decision to sell ETFs is not related to stock market levels and that the planned sales could take over 100 years if executed at the specified pace [4]. - The BOJ aims to maintain a stable monthly pace of ETF sales while avoiding market disruptions, with the flexibility to halt sales in case of significant market volatility [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Context - The sale of ETFs and J-REITs is viewed as a significant step towards normalizing the long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy of the BOJ, with symbolic importance [5]. - The BOJ is also preparing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 [5]. - Market participants are keen to understand how the BOJ will signal further interest rate hikes and are looking for indications regarding the neutral interest rate, estimated to be between 1% and 2.5% [5]. Group 3: Historical Context of ETF Purchases - The BOJ began purchasing ETFs in 2010 to stimulate the corporate sector by increasing the supply of funds and encouraging risk investment activities [7]. - Initially, the BOJ invested heavily in Nikkei 225 index ETFs but shifted to broader Topix index ETFs in 2021 [7]. - The scale of asset purchases expanded significantly under former Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, leading to a substantial rise in the Japanese stock market, although the effectiveness of these measures has diminished over time [7]. Group 4: Criticism of ETF Holdings - The BOJ's initial purchase of Nikkei 225 index ETFs faced criticism due to the price-weighted nature of the index, which disproportionately favored a few high-priced stocks [8]. - Critics argue that the BOJ's large ETF holdings distort the market and can lead to excessive volatility during policy adjustments [8]. - The substantial holdings by the BOJ have reduced the availability of tradable shares in the market and weakened shareholder influence on corporate governance [8].