SCS(SH:601555) 智通财经网·2025-12-15 06:52Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the domestic solar installation in China is expected to reach 290 GW in 2025, influenced by policy changes, while the global solar installation is projected to grow steadily, particularly in emerging markets like the Middle East and India [1][2]. Demand - Domestic solar installations from January to October 2025 are projected at 252.87 GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%, with an expected total of 290 GW for the year [2] - In the overseas market, the US and Europe are expected to add 50 GW and 70 GW respectively in 2025, maintaining year-on-year stability [2] - Emerging markets, especially in the Middle East and India, are anticipated to contribute significantly to growth, with projections of 28 GW and 31 GW respectively, representing increases of 87% and 29% [2] - Global new solar installations are expected to reach 599 GW in 2025, an 11% increase, but will slightly decline to 588 GW in 2026 due to a decrease in domestic installations [2] Supply - The industry is expected to see a halt in capacity expansion for silicon wafers and modules starting in 2026, which may alleviate the current oversupply situation [3] - Companies are facing profitability pressures, with a focus on cash flow quality and debt structure becoming more critical than profits [3] - A joint storage platform established by leading silicon material companies aims to address the issues of oversupply and price discrepancies in the industry [3] Industry Chain - The silicon material industry is projected to have a total capacity of approximately 3 million tons by the end of 2025, with current operating rates at 37% [4] - Silicon material prices have rebounded to around 50 yuan, with profit margins expected to recover in 2026 [4] - The module prices have seen a cumulative decline of over 60% since their peak in 2023, but leading companies are experiencing a narrowing of margin declines [4] - The inverter market is expected to see significant growth, particularly in large-scale and commercial storage [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-growth areas such as inverters and mounting systems, with specific companies highlighted for their strong market positions [5][6] - Beneficiaries of supply-side reforms and cost advantages include leading silicon material companies and strong channel advantage module manufacturers [5][6] - New technology leaders in materials and perovskite solar cells are also recommended for investment consideration [6]