信达证券：中国电信属较优质的派息股选择 评级为”买入”

Core Viewpoint - China Telecom (00728) is experiencing moderate growth in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, although the profit growth rate has slightly slowed in the third quarter. The Tianyi Cloud business is in a transitional phase, with a decline in general cloud computing revenue but a significant increase of 62.3% in intelligent computing-related revenue for the same period. Future government policies promoting technological innovation may encourage government and enterprise clients to adopt AI-related cloud computing, presenting opportunities for Tianyi Cloud. The recommendation rating is "Buy" [1]. Group 1 - In the third quarter of 2025, the group's profit maintained moderate growth, with a slight revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year for the first three quarters, and service revenue growing by 0.9%. EBITDA increased by 4.2%, and profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.0%. However, in the third quarter alone, revenue decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with service revenue growing by 0.5%, EBITDA up by 2.4%, and profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 3.6%. The slowdown in profit growth is primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [2]. Group 2 - Tianyi Cloud is in a transitional phase, with revenue growth slowing. In the first half of 2025, Tianyi Cloud's revenue was 57.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, which is a deceleration compared to previous periods. Management indicated that the global cloud computing industry is undergoing a critical transition, with a significant decline in growth for general computing-based cloud services, while demand for AI-driven intelligent computing is robust. The intelligent revenue, including AI and intelligent computing services, grew by 62.3% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. Group 3 - The government is expected to implement measures encouraging the application of AI-related cloud computing technologies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. A significant portion of the group's enterprise clients are government-related entities, which tend to be conservative in adopting AI-related cloud computing due to high security requirements. The recent "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving technological self-reliance and innovation-driven growth, indicating that promoting technological innovation will be a government priority in the coming years, which could benefit Tianyi Cloud's business [4]. Group 4 - The upward potential for Chinese government bond yields is limited, making the group a relatively attractive dividend stock choice. Since the second half of the year, Chinese government bond yields have risen, somewhat affecting the appeal of high-dividend stocks. Given the current U.S. interest rate cut cycle and the state of the Chinese macroeconomy, further increases in government bond yields are not expected. The group's traditional mobile services and fixed broadband business remain stable, coupled with healthy free cash flow and potential growth from AI-related cloud computing, positioning the group as a quality dividend stock [5].