我看“十五五”｜吴晓求：消费扩张需要深度重构三个核心函数

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for China to achieve a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, emphasizing the need for new economic growth drivers and financial reforms to realize the "financial power" strategy [2] Economic Development Characteristics - The "15th Five-Year" period will be characterized by a shift from a "shortage economy" to an "over-supply economy," necessitating a fundamental change in governance logic and economic policy [5][6] - The global technological revolution presents a historical opportunity for China, with a strong foundation in artificial intelligence, big data, and new energy [4] Consumption Dynamics - In an "over-supply economy," consumption is crucial for maintaining economic balance, shifting from being viewed as waste to a key driver of growth [6][7] - The expansion of consumption is constrained by income, wealth, and social security, requiring institutional restructuring in these areas [7][8] Wealth Creation and Employment - Optimizing the business environment and protecting the rights of various market entities, including state-owned and private enterprises, is essential for job creation and income growth [7] - Approximately 60% to 70% of household wealth is concentrated in real estate, which poses risks to consumption when property prices decline [8] Social Security and Savings - High savings rates among Chinese residents reflect cultural tendencies and a precautionary approach, which can suppress effective demand in an "over-supply economy" [9] - A robust social security system is necessary to alleviate residents' concerns and release locked purchasing power [9] Financial System Reform - The core task of financial reform during the "15th Five-Year" period is to adapt the financial system to the transition from a shortage to an over-supply economy [10] - There is a need for innovation in financial products to meet the diverse financing needs of enterprises at different life stages [11] Capital Market Development - The capital market's role is evolving from merely a financing tool to a platform for wealth management and risk-sharing [17][18] - Enhancing the quality of listed companies and encouraging high-growth firms to go public is vital for the capital market's long-term value [18] Liquidity and Market Activity - Maintaining adequate liquidity is essential for the capital market's price discovery function and investor satisfaction [19] - A daily trading volume of around 2 trillion yuan should be considered a normal state of market maturity [19] Legal and Regulatory Framework - Strengthening legal frameworks to ensure market transparency and protect investors is critical for rebuilding trust in the capital market [20] - Severe penalties for fraudulent activities are necessary to establish a market environment based on investor protection and contractual integrity [20]